Cisco and the Monitor Group’s Global Business Network today published “The Evolving Internet.” ” The report examines the driving forces and uncertainties that will – in whatever combination – shape the path of the Internet over the next 15 years.
In four scenarios – the result of more than a year’s worth of research, data collection and interviews – different potential pathways are described and detailed. The scenarios suggest how a range of critical factors might play out, such as net neutrality policies, infrastructure investments, consumer response to new pricing models, and technology adoption.
One scenario describes a familiar roadmap in which the Internet continues on its trajectory of unbridled expansion and product and service innovation. The other three challenge that future, and in the process illuminate various risks and opportunities that lie ahead for both business leaders and policy makers.” The scenarios are called: Fluid Frontiers, Insecure Growth, Short of the Promise, Bursting at the Seams.
Five trends with “a common foundation for any scenarios on the Internet’s future relate relate to the global composition and governance of the Internet, generational differences, interface technology, and pricing models for connectivity:
Most growth in the Internet-related market will occur outside of today’s high income, or “advanced,” economies. Global governance of the Internet will remain substantially unchanged. “Digital natives” will relate to the Internet in markedly different ways than earlier generations. The QWERTY keyboard will not be the primary interface with the Internet. Consumers will pay for Internet connectivity in a much
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