Years ago a asked a colleague to speak on a panel about how she knew what she knew — what did she know that enabled her to her job so well? She told me it was the most difficult exercise. For most of us, we “just do” things without thinking about how we do them, the processes we use to do them. So it is really interesting to hear the inner workings/thinking of people, especially if we can get them to articulate those workings. Just saw this post by Cisco Chief Futurist, David Evans, about doing just that! He looked inward and here’s what he says:
While predicting the future isn’t an exact science, it can be accomplished with surprising accuracy. Here’s how I do it.
1) Scan by casting a wide net: Once the trends are developed, I use a scenario-planning technique that allows me to envision future states from just a few years to decades. I then use a process called “backcasting,” which, in essence, is the opposite of forecasting. With forecasting, you start at a current state to envision what’s possible. With backcasting, you begin at a future state and consider the events that need to occur to enable that scenario. Once these events are identified, I apply a set of filters and use a weighting system to determine their viability. Filters often take the shape of questions. Will a specific technology exist in that time frame to enable a given event? Are there dependent technologies or
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